Clould Macron bring the UK back to the EU?

In the grand scheme of things, major changes to the EU are few and far between. Getting all 27 member states around the table to agree on something is tough. Some, like France and Germany, are doggedly in favor of more European integration, while others, like Denmark and formerly the UK, have been notably less keen. However, French President Emmanuel Macron has come out fighting after his re-election, calling for the creation of a new community of European democracies as soon as possible. So in this article, we're going to take a look at what Macron is proposing if it could bring Britain back into Europe and why the idea might have trouble getting off the ground.

In a speech to the European Parliament last week, Macron called for a major overhaul of Europe's political scene. At the closing of the conference on the future of Europe, the recently re-elected president urged the creation of a new European political community, as well as suggested revisions to the current EU treaties to speed up decision-making. This new European political community would, in Macron's words, "enable democratic European nations who adhere to our values to find a new space for political cooperation, security, cooperation in energy, transport, investment, infrastructure and the movement of people." Importantly, Macron stated that "joining would not mean that you could not in the future join the European Union, and it would also not be limited to those who have left the European Union." Given that only two member states have ever left the European Union, Greenland and the UK, and given that Greenland's departure occurred nearly 40 years ago, you can see who Macron was addressing with that statement. What would this new European political community actually involve?

Well, we don't actually know, and neither does' macron. According to Georgina Wright, a senior fellow at the Institute of Montego, Macro's proposal is a very French thing: make a proposal first and figure out how it would work afterwards. Nevertheless, Macro's proposal recognizes an important fact that's been made clear during the war in Ukraine. While the EU is usually enough, sometimes Europe also needs a Europe-wide response, including non-EU members like the UK. As such, he believes it would be better if the EU had some sort of forum for communicating with these other non-EU members that are still key parts of the continent. Anyway, Macron's call for a European political community isn't all that new. But Macron himself acknowledged that it was a rehash of an idea first proposed by his predecessor, François Mitterrand, back in 1989. Just a matter of weeks after the Berlin Wall fell, Mitteron proposed the idea of a broad European confederation that would associate all states of the European continent in a common and permanent organization for the exchange of peace and security.

In fact, Macon's plan not only rehashes his predecessor's proposal, but it also rehashes his own idea. All in all, Macon has in the past called for a multi-speed Europe of concentric rings. However, perhaps the most significant problem with Macron's proposal is its hierarchical nature. While both Macron's new and old plans have been proposed with the intention of keeping the European Union together, both plans ultimately entail a tiered approach to Europe; those in the club and those not. For much of Europe's history, there has been a core set of countries and an outer set; the countries fully subscribe to European projects and those with opt-outs; and while on paper, a multi-speed Europe sounds great; countries can just go at their own pace; in reality, it's not that simple. Many eastern European nations, for instance, are afraid that in a two-speed or multi-speed Europe they're going to get left behind as the richer west presses on with deeper and deeper cooperation. But to be clear, a multi-speed Europe already exists—well, kind of.

For instance, not every single member state is at the same level of European integration as the eurozone. While every member barring Denmark is obligated to eventually join the single currency, currently there's a divide between those who have foregone their national currency and those who are holding out. The same story applies to Schengen. While the overwhelming proportion of EU member states have signed up for Schengen and removed border controls, some haven't. While some intra-EU divisions may already exist, Macron's proposal will almost certainly face opposition because it implicitly advocates for a European hierarchy, which will make some smaller European states nervous. That was Macron's first proposal: a new community of European democracies. It is not quite a new EU, but a more informal grouping that allows EU countries to connect directly with non-members in order to align on various strategies and plans.

That way, nations like Norway could be brought into the fold for the first time, whiles the UK could be brought back. At the moment, however, without the level of EU control or restraint that both reject, a more aligned continent promoting a more open dialogue between the two groups is all that is required. Hopes that such a plan will help the EU move faster when it comes to Europe-wide strategy. But Macron wants to improve not only collaboration with external countries, but also the EU itself. For better or worse, Macron is concerned about the speed with which Europe responds to crises such as the financial crisis, sovereign debt crisis, pandemic, or war in Ukraine. At the same time, Macron believes that Europe should respond faster, which would necessitate a change in the way decisions are made in the EU, i.e., treaty change. As things currently stand, the EU, or more specifically, the Council of Ministers, uses qualified majority voting to pass legislation.

Qualified majority voting, also known simply as QMV, requires two conditions to be met: 55% of member states voting in favor, currently 15 out of the 27, as well as the votes in favor being cast by member states representing at least 65 percent of the EU's population. Crucially, QMV does not apply to all decisions made by the EU. Specifically, there's a big policy area where unanimity is required: the EU's common foreign and security policy. But Macron wants to change that and shift decisions away from unanimity and toward qualified majority voting (QMV). A view that's actually supported by the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen. Speaking just before, von der Leyen said that unanimity voting in some areas simply no longer makes sense if we want to be able to move faster.

And speaking the week before, the Italian prime minister, widely credited with saving the euro, also called for treaty change and a reassessment of the unanimity rule. The problem, though, is that treaty change is hard. The European Council, i.e., the heads of state (not Vandalian) must unanimously support calling for an intergovernmental conference in order to amend the treaties. It's just not on the minds of a significant proportion of member states. In fact, thirteen member states signed a joint letter on the very same day as both Macron and von der Leyen's speeches, warning against unconsidered and premature attempts to launch a process towards treaty change. They believe it would entail a serious risk of drawing political energy away from the important task of finding solutions to the questions to which our citizens expect answers, and from handling the urgent geopolitical challenges facing Europe.

Obviously, if 13 of the 27 members of the EU are hesitant about treaty change, which is hard enough when everyone's on board, then it doesn't look likely that this is going to happen in the immediate future. However, when or if the political temperature in Europe cools down, we should expect to see Macron, the EU's foremost political heavyweight, pushing harder for a leaner and meaner Europe.